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China’s problem is a question of political economy, 18 large near when we have to consider not only economic issues but also consider the social and other problems.

China is entering a new era of economic development. During this period, there are three main factors changing. First, the challenges of middle-income trap “, China did not show the ability to override this trap. The second is the emergence of the “Lewis turning point” and the reduction of the demographic dividend. This is controversial, but look at the proportion of elderly people over the age of 65, look at the dependency ratio, can be seen, not to the inflection point may not determine the good, but the trend is not in doubt. Is the factor price of external demand, structural adjustment and long-term control is difficult to sustain. The sharp decline in external demand, some people think this is related to the slow recovery and the European sovereign debt crisis, but in my opinion, it reflects a structural problem is a long-term problems. Another factor is that factor prices are regulated, is underestimated, such as exchange rates, interest rates, industrial land, labor, energy, these prices is to change, can not long maintain a distorted price system.ルイヴィトン日本

Apart from the economic point of view, from a social point of view, the original development model has serious social and environmental costs: the corruption, environmental destruction, social justice, fair missing has become increasingly prominent.

Based on these observations, my conclusion is that China’s continuing 30 years of economic growth mode has come to an end, has reached an inflection point, China has entered a critical period of the new round of reform.

China’s reform and opening up more than 30 years, should summarize the experience of contemporary Chinese reform process. The first experience is that the cohesion of the market system-oriented consensus to promote reform of the ideological foundation. We need to have ideological foundation. We have a reform of logic, a logic of reform. The logic is the establishment of market mechanisms. If the logical confusion, the story is not clear, it will lack the consensus of the reform.

The second experience, promote and perfect the system of transition and growth mode transformation of the release of the source of productivity. Growth mode more contentious, was speaking to rely on consumption, domestic demand, and some say the government to dominate the economy, also said the Government should do is to provide public goods, which also requires the formation of consensus.

The third lesson is that top-down top-level design and bottom-up grass-roots innovation interactive path of reform. Review 30 years of reform, is actually a grass-roots innovation and top-level innovative, interactive, market, and mutual response. I agree with the top-level design, such as financial, tax, price, there must be a top-level design. Need to be reminded that, should not forget the grass-roots innovation, or should we believe that market forces.

The fourth experience is both short-term cycle of response and long-term structural adjustment reform policies. China’s economy, there is a so-called “trilemma” is to deal with the relationship of employment, inflation and structural adjustment. Over the years, oscillating between employment and inflation, structural adjustment was always put in the back. We handle well the relationship between structural and cyclical problems.