Supply and demand report nothing new tight soybean stocks escort – soybean price – Food Industry
"Chinese demand" CBOT soybean futures are up this season the key to the cycle of price already rose to seven-month high. However, subsequent market speculation that China established a huge inventory is likely to slow after the import, triggered profit taking, soybean futures rose on the way Tuyu "cold", desperation had to hover above the 11 U.S. dollars. Although the report released last night was nothing new to the market for the time being in the "forward" on the way the lack of clear direction, but the current global stock market optimism and the "tension" in the "mainstream view" is still around in the soybean market in the short term.
USDA reported soybean no accident "pilot light" temporarily out
Tuesday, the USDA supply and demand report released in May, but not with other published monthly by the different supply and demand report, the May report for the first time on the 2009/10 forecast of supply and demand patterns, and therefore much market concerns. However, the soybean data, the report last night, either 2008/09 or 2009/10 data already in the market expected, failed to bring any surprises.
Report, the U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 are reduced to 1.3 billion bushels, with market expectations, higher than in April reported a decrease 35 million bushels. Adjustment of the data mainly from the growth in demand, the export volume of the market enthusiastically participated in the further raised to 1.24 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels from last month is expected. U.S. domestic crush at 1.64 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month is expected. However, we further explore the analysis, the United States reduce the inventory actually is because China is a substantial increase in purchasing and storage (725 tons). This part of the State Reserve will eventually need to digest and, therefore, the so-called decline in U.S. stocks just "transfer" it, so-called "tension" is worth the future market to further "interpretation."
In 2009/10 soybean supply and demand data, the planting area and yield relative to the 3 end of the planting intentions report of public relations and trends in the data yield no change in the level, still a record high of 76 million acres and soybean production will reach record 3.195 billion bushels. However, 2.3 billion bushels of ending stocks are significantly lower than market expectations of 2.39, mainly because the United States Department of Agriculture on the new annual U.S. soybean exports remain optimistic forecast to reach 1.26 billion bushels.
Since this report, as expected, flat appearance, Tuesday CBOT soybean futures price volatility, the market price of the lack of clear direction. In the Tuesday before publication of the report, the soybean market has risen 80% -90% of the bullish factors that had been digested by the price of soybean futures lack of incentive to continue to attract large-scale buying. However, Wednesday's Electronic Session, CBOT soybean futures rose more than 2% to seven-month high, U.S. soybean stocks, "tight" and is expected to be reflected in prices.
Soybean market is still supported by the fundamentals, the United States Chen bean inventory data expected continuation of the recent "tensions" in the mainstream of thinking, for 130 million bushels of U.S. stocks have the lowest level in five years. Liang-Yun Zhang Ruming futures research and development manager, said in 07/08, the U.S. Department of Agriculture soybean ending stocks are expected to decline once to 125 million bushels, although the data was a sharp correction, and that the annual headline inflation environment commodity markets clear, but 07/08 wild soybean prices will largely improve the performance of the market believe the imagination.
The report will be Argentina's soybean production of 39 million tons from last month sharply cut to 34 million tons, while the oil will be the world's latest forecast a further drop in Argentine soybean production from 1.5 to 33 million tons. Zhang Ruming said that the situation of U.S. soybean exports will remain strong, which the U.S. soybean stocks Chen further cuts are possible, of course, China can continue to sustain the recent high volume of imports of the situation also will have a greater market variables. General trend of the late U.S. soybean inventories will continue to be tight for the market Chen bean thread, but based on current high commodity market linkage of the dollar and crude oil price trend will continue on the formation of a strong guiding role of soybean, while U.S. soybean planting and new year growth markets will be short term not have a decisive impact.
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