Chinese steel demand fell further established trend – steel – machine tool industry
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Current real estate market downturn, but also inhibited the growth of domestic steel consumption. Relevant information, access, since 2008, real estate sale throughout the country there waiting to see a strong atmosphere of speculation and investment, buy a house buy a house a significant contraction in their own homes buy a house also was postponed. Affected, developers slowed down the construction progress. According to information, national real estate investment in 2007 increased 30.2%, but the area of commercial housing completed increased by only 4.3%, at the lowest level in over three years. 1 quarter of this year, almost the same situation. Experts believe that this phenomenon is the most important reason is that developers slow down the construction progress, delaying completion time. It reflects the current real estate market, wait and see situation.
2, the next stage of growth of steel demand continued to fall
Analysis based on current information available, resulting in a significant drop demand factors in the future will continue to exist, so the next stage of China's steel demand is still down trend, not a major change.
The second half of 2007, the U.S. economy began to slide. Outbreak of the subprime crisis and its negative effects to the global spread, leading to a significant slowdown in the world economy. Although the United States and the European Union's rescue, but the current financial situation is not stable, the economy's downside risks remain. The idea that the past 15 years to promote the three major engines of world economic growth have failed one after another, the world economy faces the danger of stalling. Recently released in April U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 69.5 in March when 62.6, lower than previously expected, the lowest level since 1982. Because the U.S. consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the overall economy, so consumer confidence index of abnormal weakness, reflecting the shrinking of the economy than the extent of data now to see more serious. Not only that, some other economic data points to recession: U.S. new home sales fell in March to near the lowest level in 17 years, new home sales price in nearly 40 years, the biggest drop since; the United States in March durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 0.3 %. To this end, a "stock god" the title of Warren? Buffett believes that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recession may be more serious than people expected, a recession lasted much longer than people expected. U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes also show that the pressure on financial markets may cause slowdown in U.S. economic activity is expected to be more serious than the current level and duration.
U.S. economy has cooled even a recession, will have a great drag on the world economy, other countries and regions, downside risks facing the economy increased significantly. Accordingly, the IMF's report will be the world's economic growth in 2008, down 3.7%, the report concludes that further growth in 2009 slowed the world economy, global economic growth in the next two years, less than 3% chance of recession at 25 %.
Slowdown in the U.S. and the world economy, continue to tighten the external demand for steel in China, including direct exports and indirect exports of both. China Steel Industry Association's forecast that exports of crude steel in 2008 the national average for each quarter, down about 5 million tons, but a quarter of exports decreased by about 4.62 million tons, so the number of future decline in exports are likely to continue to expand.
By raw material prices, RMB appreciation are two main factors, including air conditioning, refrigerator, color TV, kitchen utensils, small appliances and other durable consumer goods were raised export quotations. But there are many companies related to official said, even if price increases are still not profitable, it may be forced to reduce exports, and some household appliances manufacturers may go down the tubes. Affected by this year, a quarter of national exports of some steel products consumption decline will continue.
Within the new year, due to higher inflationary pressures, "two prevents" persist under a tight monetary policy is still the main direction of the central macro-control. Against the central focus of a comprehensive inflation environment, some are too strong export demand continues to suffer from pressure, such as related products to further enhance the export tariffs, strict control of such loan. Therefore, the majority opinion held that in 2008 China's economy (GDP) growth rate at between 9.5% -10% over the previous year level down to 1? 2 percentage points.
Tight monetary policy implementation, leading to large developers hoarding land funding constraints; rates "turning point of" emergence, delayed the purchase of a building lot; high investment price, making a large number of development funds shrink. Above aspects of the impact of steel consumption in real estate, it is difficult to disappear in a short time.
Comprehensive analysis, in 2008 the national trend of steel consumption growth will inevitably drop.
Third, the impact of steel demand drop
Steel demand in China increases down, the entire steel industry will inevitably have a major impact chain.
First, growth in domestic steel drop students. According to statistics, one quarter of the national output of 124.94 million tons of crude steel, only 8.6% more than last year, an increase of nearly 14 percentage points down. According to the first 3-month average yield basis, the estimated annual crude steel production of about 499.76 million tons, only about 2% higher than last year. Even if the future increase in production factors into account, the national crude steel production growth in 2008 will also be less than 10%, well below the level of the previous year.
Followed by the smelter down the growth momentum. With China's crude steel production growth levels of the significant downturn in China's iron and steel smelting intensity will weaken demand for raw materials, which for many years a strong rise in iron ore, coke, steel scrap market, will undoubtedly produce some inhibition. Ministry of Commerce of the monitoring data show that since the end of February this year, domestic iron ore prices down for 6 weeks showed oscillation trend, if not a big accident, most likely within 1 year breakdown in the spot price of iron ore in India bubble.
Finally, steel prices trend down. Into 2008, there have been many factors, the national steel prices continue to rise strongly. It is estimated that 3 at the end of this year, the country's 30 major cities, five major varieties of steel average price of 5642 yuan / ton, up 41.8% over last year, the absolute t value increased 1662 yuan, far beyond the increase in costs costs. With the increase in steel demand during the fall, especially the expansion of the export decline, with production capacity of the release, the domestic steel prices to curb the trend, showing high down the situation.
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