Chinese ship owner or induce acquired withdrawals – Machinery Industry
U.S. investment bank CantorFitzgerald recent research report published in New York expect a lot of new shipyards in China by the new single will be inadequate and cash flow problems and failures, and encourage more existing dry bulk carriers are withdrawals, new office, new office dry world currently in stock the proportion of bulk carriers withdrawals, or up to 15%. The bank also said the industry had on the Chinese demand for imported raw materials, over-optimistic, a large bulk carrier during rents expected to remain under pressure, the prospects of small and medium vessels were gradually right direction. The new shipyard shipbuilding
into account two Financial crisis broke out in the end of 2008 before the booming dry bulk shipping market, owners have a new custom-made ship, the momentum of China in recent years the development of a number of new shipyards. Cantor, said currently about 20% of the global dry bulk carrier new shipyard in the new custom-made, which this year delivered by the shipyard built Capesize vessel proportion of total deliveries up to 26%, the proportion has reached 24% next year, reflecting the fate of the New Shipyard great impact on the delivery.
The bank pointed out that some junior difficult to obtain owner financing, not only the number of new single-no recovery may not be able to pay the existing order, resulting in reduced cash flow the new shipyard. Report is expected, the current accumulation of new office dry bulk rate orders of withdrawals, between 13% to 15%, will be able to avoid all the new ships scheduled to enter the market caused by the worst case.
Beijing shipbuilding industry sources recently said that last year, approximately 107 shipyards in China, the new ship was custom-made withdrawals, conversion of about 4.7 million dwt. He expects the European ship owner still can not do anything new funding, will not significantly drop this year, the number of withdrawals during the year with more to come make withdrawals, the owner requests, material eventually will have 100 new vessels to be withdrawn.
However, Cantor reminder, the next few years, the excess capacity situation will not change because of the high rate of withdrawals. Last year, the global dry bulk fleet capacity has increased by 9.9%, the bank will be expected capacity increase of 15.5%, 16.1% next year, while further increase in rental pressure still heavy.
The bank expected, although China still has strong demand for imported raw materials, but the government can successfully solve the steel industry such as overcapacity and excessive credit expansion in the two major issues, shipping industry had predicted China's annual import volume will be significantly too high , so the bank decided to lower the forecast level of large vessel rental.
Capsize report lower annual average rent forecast 4000 U.S. dollars to 32,000 U.S. dollars, second quarter 6000 U.S. dollars forecast was also reduced to 32 thousand U.S. dollars. Cantor said that despite the first quarter of the new dry bulk carrier of a deferred and withdrawals, up to 40% to 50%, but during some 47 Capesize vessels from entering the market, setting a single season high deliveries. The bank worries, low rates and a huge ship-breaking delivery of new vessels alternating two factors, the capacity variance in fleet capacity has been increased over last summer, about 20%, while in the case of growing too fast, CVRD is planning to switch to its own fleet, Cape size vessel rent in the next 12 to 18 months, very heavy pressure.
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