Appliance industry: now in decline among the channel – air conditioning sales, washing machines – Network Appliance Industry-hc360 HC
9
White
Industry performance slightly better than market expectations.
Air conditioning
Sales fell only 4.5% year on year, industry sales are in May has been a negative growth rate of monthly sales fell the least a month.
Refrigerator
Sales down 10.16%, mainly due to slowdown in domestic demand, but exports rose 1.22%, higher than in August fell 8.21% year on year has improved.
Washing machine
September sales increase of 9.8% over the previous year, representing an increase of 3.5% in August picked up, the most stable market performance.
Low
industry is expected to appear in 2009 or after 2 quarters. We believe that the fourth quarter is not
Home Appliances
Industry round down-cycle low, while in 2008 a quarter of air-conditioning, refrigerator, on surging sales in 2009 a quarter of industry sales data may be significantly decreased, it can be expected that 2009 will remain very grim situation in the first half of the industry. External environment from the current industry, we believe that domestic and international macro-economic cycle is still in decline, demand for home appliances is expected to be difficult in the next 2-3 quarters and effective pick-up, our preliminary judging round of the cycle low of household appliances fell at least 2 in 2009 After the quarterly and beyond.
The third quarter, sign of significant decline in corporate profits. Third quarter operating from the single-season situation, Household Appliance revenue and profits is slowing down, though most companies still maintain a growth year on year, but the trend is clearly down the chain of view. Gree, Midea, Haier three companies in the third quarter operating income, net profit down the chain are significant.
TV
Industry emerged a number of listed companies net profit year on year decline, the industry is expected to increase the growth rate decreased.
Small appliances
, The third quarter, the higher the export share of gross margin fell significantly small home appliances company, resulting in a negative profit growth.
Secondary appliances to rural areas may bring opportunities for the pilot. The second round of the promotion of home appliances to the countryside, both from home appliances to the countryside or the rural areas of coverage and promotion of the time point of view, efforts were much higher than the first trial, we believe that decline in the second appliance will effectively stimulate the rural consumer market, a substantial increase in rural areas household electrical appliances, especially washing machines, refrigerators and other products of the penetration, in turn, contribute to household electrical appliance enterprises to expand the domestic market, improve corporate revenues and profits increased steadily.
Maintain the home appliance industry "neutral" rating. The short term, home appliances to the countryside is difficult to quickly and effectively to stimulate domestic demand picked up, while the export market in 2009 expected the situation even more severe, although raw material prices fall helps to maintain the stability of home appliances business margins, but the continued weakness in the demand facing the industry is still major risks. Therefore, we remain on the appliance industry, "neutral" investment rating. Stocks strategy, enterprise products can be concerned about the various successful finalists, as well as trading of opportunities this may bring.
Risk warning. The main risks facing the appliance industry, including the slowdown in domestic demand, the decline in exports, rising raw material costs, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange losses caused by such.
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