Semiconductor Industry: Swinging in the recovery – Semiconductors – electronics
SEMISiliconValleyLunchForum in August 19, the three top industry analysts agree that, more and more signs that the global Semiconductor Market has bottomed. BillMcClean (ICInsights), DeanFreeman (Gartner) and JohnHousley (Techcet) three analysts talked about the recent signs of semiconductor production up, and equipment orders for the 2010 forecast growth of more than 30%.
Global IC industry will be tremendous growth momentum
BillMcClean, ICInsights "The industry cycle has bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009, the second half of capital spending is expected to grow 33% over the first half. Do not look back, it is ready for uplink cycle time." BillMcClean said. He suggested that industry should use the "quarter of thinking" to look at the market, he pointed out that the recession will lead to each of the global market demand has been suppressed, "the growth of the semiconductor industry will usher in two years."
For next year, he expects at least 15% growth may reach 20%. "As the downturn, the market may well reverse, upward momentum can be a downturn as severe downward trend." McClean concluded.
2009 the status of the second half year Last
McClean that the first half of 2009 was the worst global recession. But in the second half, he thought Electronic System power sales will be seasonal, IC inventory adjustments have been completed, the global GDP will be better. Global GDP and U.S. GDP are converted from negative growth to positive growth (from -3.6% to +2.0 world%; the United States from -3.7% to +1.3%). In various fields (mobile phone shipments, PC shipments, IC market, IC foundry market, semiconductor capital spending), in the second half has shown strong growth.
McClean pointed out that the 20-strong sales of the semiconductor industry has grown 21% (second quarter over the first quarter). He repeatedly reminded the audience not to see the industry change from year, but look from the quarter.
"We suffered a demand collapse, and 2001 different was larger than the real needs of shipping, but the real decline in demand. In the first quarter is the bottom, we have reached the bottom. Industry experienced in the way is incredible, two quarters of record to be flushed down the chain. "
Understand the potential demand The most pessimistic for 2009 shipment forecast (PC: -12%, phone: -12% TV Machine: -2%), McClean noted that shipments of why the return to 2009 levels in 2006-2007, rather than the 2005 level. IC shipments for the quarter trend of the first quarter of 2009, returned to 2005 levels, but the second quarter rose to a lower level in 2007.
He also noted that TSMC's sales in a quarter more than doubled, to the third quarter, TSMC's sales will return to the level of the third quarter of 2008.
McClean said the foundry and IDM capital spending by a record low set in 2010 and 2011, will allow equipment orders rebounded strongly. "Capital spending fell to 12% of sales, which had never happened before is incredibly low. Downturns before and there have been double-digit percentage decline in capital spending occur. However, after one year 23% growth in capital expenditures (1987 ), 14% (1997), 14% (2003), ICInsights forecast growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively 18% and 36%.
On Storage Chip Expenditure trends, McClean said the situation "absolutely shocking." Memory chip capital expenditure was 32.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2007, 2008, 208 million, in 2009 only 7.2 billion are expected. IC capacity utilization in a quarter jumped 20 percentage points (from 57% in the first quarter of this year to 78% in the second quarter), will continue to grow during the year
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