Xugong results from the crane industry, amendments to pry – Xugong, Crane – Cons
Report Guidance: January 15, 2009, Xugong amendment notice issued performance, the company will in 2009 net profit attributable to parent company owners greatly increased, exceeding market expectations, this led to some of our thinking.
1. Performance caused the company to increase the share price strength. January 15, 2009, the company issued a bulletin saying the owner of 2009, net profit attributable to parent company, three quarters of the newspaper about 1.58 billion yuan forecast revised to about 1.732 billion yuan, basic earnings per share of about 1.82 yuan raised to about 2.00 element. Performance of the company said fourth-quarter rise is largely due to domestic Construction Machinery Than-expected market demand, the company Sell Revenue growth than expected; and further optimize the company structure, product sales, gross profit margin increase than expected. After the announcement, as results topped consensus expectations, higher stock quickly, closing the day to daily limit.
2. Than-expected performance of the company why not? According to the company, company performance than expected primarily due to 2009 Q4-than-expected sales and gross profit margin than-expected; ended January 15, 2010, 2009, 1-11 months Crane Industry sales data has been published, no-than-expected phenomenon, but the company said the four-than-expected quarterly sales data, we believe that part of the company than-expected data not focus on statistics released in December, bringing to the market this very unexpected news Therefore, limit-price day. But this is causing all-than-expected performance of the company do? In December 29, 2009 issued a bulletin saying the company will choose the right within 6 months of issue of shares to a specific object, the issue price of not less than 20 days before the pricing benchmark average price of 90% of the company's stock, to raise funds total of not more than 50 billion yuan, but the company on Jan. 14, 2010 price of 34.23 yuan, compared with a premium price for additional rate of 10% of the premium rate for such additional agencies to participate in orientation in terms of attractiveness, "not outstanding" From this perspective, the company has released positive, boosting the stock price motivation, as Shanghai Car Before the expiration of the warrants as the release of good news.
Therefore, our conclusion: While crane-than-expected sales in the company's performance over the expected reasons, but the company released results of the "impulse" is also an important factor can not be ignored.
3. What we can make inference? 1) If Xugong-than-expected performance was due to the situation crane industry-than-expected result, then the crane industry, companies are expected to be over there, in the A-share market in the main crane operations include Zoomlion Now Xugong, Zoomlion are located in the crane market, first, second, if the crane Xugong-than-expected business, we have reason to believe that Zoomlion business are also more likely-than-expected, because Zoomlion Another major business Concrete Machinery Sales even better than the crane.
2) If the crane business-than-expected sales in the market demand is brought out so other construction machinery-than-expected sales of the situation also exists the possibility of higher market concentration in particular, construction machinery, in this sense, Concrete Machinery, Excavator The possibility of ultra-high business expectations, so there are super-Sany performance may be expected. 3) If the construction machinery industry in 2009 the possibility of a larger-than-expected, the growth of construction machinery industry in 2010 as the base effect will occur a certain level of decline, in line with our strategy for the 2010 annual report of the construction machinery industry to judge (the economy peak has passed). 4) If the purpose of Xugong for the release of additional positive, then we can infer that the company private placement may begin real work starts, the progress may be faster than the market expectations. One reason is that stock price movements is uncertain, in order to maintain private placement agencies involved in the appeal, the company should be carried out when the stock price is attractive enough, now the time is appropriate; the other hand, recently Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and other construction machinery giant were injected by way of assets or additional investment in new projects, objectively Xugong some kind of threat, such as promoting the private placement does not work as quickly as possible, Xugong status in the industry will be challenged.
Construction machinery industry investment opportunities. Given the above analysis, we believe that the recent construction machinery industry investment opportunities are: 1) Report-than-expected results. Based on the above analysis, we believe that in 2009 the possibility of a higher-than-expected performance of listed companies also Sany, ZOOMLION. 2) The concept of sending switch. Based on the above analysis, we believe that Xugong expected to send a higher transfer can be properly recognized. 3) The export recovery is expected. As the situation gradually improved external demand, exports of construction machinery industry is expected to gradually recover strongly recommended that a higher proportion of export interest, ability to open up overseas markets and strong companies, such as Sany Heavy Industry, Anhui Heli, Shantui Shares of.
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