Do Not Risk Premature Shanghai Aluminum Dust Uncertain Dip
HC HVAC & R Network Greece had once launched several recent wave of “air raid”, Shanghai aluminum is also under pressure down, but its performance than copper, zinc and other similar varieties slightly stronger. The emergence of this situation, and support production costs and other factors are not unrelated. Recently, the EU assistance programs to stimulate Financial City pool heating, including Shanghai aluminum, including commodity prices have started climbing up. But I believe that the euro zone debt problem has not yet settled, when there are repeated, Shanghai aluminum futures rebound potential risks that have died, do not rush to admission bargain-hunting.
A short-term memory in the two negative
First, the debt crisis of the haze is not casual. Continuous reduction in the number of S & P Euro
sovereign debt rating of the move marks the resurgence of the crisis. Subsequently, the outbreak of the Greek nation-wide strike, the ECB Trichet denies rumors it will acquire a range of European government bonds lead to even more massive sell-off news, the euro fell against the dollar to 14-month lows, the dollar index continuously soaring commodity prices subject to a double pressure. Shows that the debt problem is so badly damaged market confidence, a little repeated can lead to panic selling that. May 10, the total EU finance ministers to reach 750 billion euros to a rescue plan for the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers from the Group of 20 economic agreements to the largest injection of funds since the launch. This makes the quagmire of debt took a dramatic turn for comfort to investors, unrest, suspension of financial markets decline.
But needs attention, from the single-day drop in the Dow Jones index soared nearly 400 points to the point, we could see the euro zone debt to the great influence the market, while the crash is behind the soaring market exposed the current financial market is facing great uncertainty, investor confidence has great instability. When there are significant negative emerge, the situation in the euro area is New Hope could nosedive.
Second, the liquidity tightening and real estate continue to make aluminum pressure regulation.
Successive implementation of the central bank’s regulatory capital return quantitative approach, a continuous 11 weeks to achieve a net withdrawn from circulation. May 2, the central bank decided to raise the third year, the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, the adjustment is completed, the deposit reserve ratio will reach 17%, from a high of 17.5% one step. April 11, the macro data were announced one after another, CPI, PPI indicates the continuing rise in market liquidity will recover at this stage the main task of the central bank. At the same time, many heavy-intensive real estate control policies introduced to suppress the demand for real estate, Beijing, Shanghai and other first-line Urban Housing Sell Price or amount of Qi, to the bulk material products to pressure.
In addition, the domestic stock market stumble endlessly index has hit an 8-month low, with the official release of upbeat data show that contrary to the good economic situation, which reflects the confidence of investors panic.
2, two features that aluminum prices began to show signs of stabilization
First, production costs still need to focus support.
Although the cost of support on the issue of aluminum is commonplace in the market participants have long attracted some attention, it seems irrelevant already suspected. But from another perspective, commodity prices is the formation of trading behavior of market participants, and if investors form a consensus on the factors that will be consciously or unconsciously, to understand profit margin single, control new empty single intervention, making psychological effects of the actual formation of the joint effect of leading to aluminum prices stabilize. In addition, the Development and Reform Commission recently reported that, in the second quarter of water and electricity prices will gradually rise, the State Council called for electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, calcium carbide high energy consumption industries strictly differentiated pricing policy, which will further increase the production of electrolytic aluminum cost.
Second, Shanghai aluminum compared to copper, zinc is taking the biggest increase, with the possibility of stabilizing the first.
If so from February 5 to now count as a cycle of ups and downs, then, from copper, aluminum, zinc and the index daily chart you can see, these three species early in February rose almost simultaneous development effort, its Goldman Sachs after the incident, the Greek foreign debt crisis and other emergencies under the influence of negative pressure drop.
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