China has maintained rapid growth momentum
In recent years, sustainable development to become a global theme. In many countries into crisis, China’s rapid development of recent years, causing widespread concern.
At the same time, retiring from the World Bank, Lin Yifu, a few days ago in the domestic high-profile claims that China can still maintain the rapid growth of around 8% in the twenty years. Many economists criticize Lin Yifu, saying it is overly optimistic. China’s future if you can not solve a series of social problems, not only can not grow, as well as into the risk of middle-income trap.
In fact, this question in the reform and opening up, are also common, many people suspect, does not completely disappear in an authoritarian country, the economy high speed development? The reform of China’s achievements in three decades, a lot of people stunned. High-speed, may indeed, but conditions of reform and pre-high-speed, in essence, China from completely closed society, to semi-closed social transformation of the release of powerful creativity.グッチメッセンジャーバッグ 246067AF65Y1370
In the future, continue to maintain the momentum of high growth lie?
A balanced strategy to create the Chinese cities rise
In recent years, along with the coastal areas of the slowdown in economic growth in central and western growth to buck the trend behind this phenomenon is the changes in China’s national strategy.
Strategic areas and socio-economic development “led after the first money the rich” that corresponds to regional development in China since the reform and opening up, pursue non-balanced development strategy, namely, giving priority to the development of the eastern coast, and then radiation to the Midwest.
Reform and opening up three decades, China has existed for many vicissitudes, to achieve the Hurricane protruding rise, also highlights some have begun to take the strength of the economic regions, such as the early years of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta; in these areas, including representatives The northward movement of the fruits of reform in China Guangzhou-Shenzhen. In particular, the rise of the PRD, led the Chinese economy as a whole take-off, but which also brought the imbalance between the eastern coastal and inland development. Lead to the collapse of the central, western decline.
In the case of the eastern coastal region maintain high growth, the overall pressure of the national strategy is not yet clear, however, in recent years, the coastal areas, especially such as Zhejiang and Guangdong in China before leading economic slowdown, the country is an urgent need for new growth regions, due to the global financial crisis, the foreign demand sharp contraction in the future domestic demand for China’s economy is of decisive significance.
In this case, China’s national strategy, step by step from the non-equilibrium strategy of giving priority to the development of coastal, transition to the equilibrium strategy of the national rise of cities and regional uprisings hegemony, all of the urban and regional, are thrown into competition an ocean.
Since 2008, China has more than a dozen regional planning, rose to national strategic level, from east to west, from north to south, almost all of the chess game of the national development strategies. Well-known economist Zhang Wuchang, once China’s economic development, due to the county competition. After the introduction of the national planning, the future of local competition in China must upgrade the county competition and rising competition in the province.
Pre-national regional planning, and finally formed a regional economic center, and the rich and powerful radiation. The most typical of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The core area of the Yangtze River Delta as part of the city of Shanghai and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the radiation region, mainly in the core area of East China, the Pearl River Delta, concentrated in the southeast of Guangdong, the radiation region, mainly in South China. In the future, under a balanced development strategy, will be born more economic center, the gradual rise of recent years, the CZT city cluster, Wuhan Metropolitan Area, the Central Plains city group, the central uplift is expected by the territory, Chongqing, Chengdu Xi’an, Xinjiang and other western region development is also very rapid, previous heavy industry base in the northeast, after restructuring, a new look; in northern Inner Mongolia, Ordos and other emerging cities known as “Little Hong Kong”. China’s overall balanced rise of the grand sight.
The universality of the rise of cities and regions, will get a new impetus to the growth of the full realization of the Sun Yat-sen a century ago envisioned the rise of China’s long-cherished wish.
Need to be created within the continental power
Troika, the investment of its own.
From 2001 to 2011, China’s total GDP, fixed asset investment, total social consumption and import and export of total compound growth, respectively, 4.53 times and 9.1 times, 4.3 times and 6.6 times the growth of social consumption, the total slightly lower than the total GDP growth rate, much lower than the export growth rate is even fixed-asset investment growth rate of less than half. The ranking of China’s economic troika, bear the brunt of investment, followed by foreign trade, while domestic demand is weakest.
The world’s developed countries, only Japan, Korea and other small economies, for trading nation, in a sense, the rise of China, but the world’s continental rise of great powers of the different number. Whether the United States, Russia or Australia, Brazil and other countries are endogenous countries, domestic demand-led, China or in the latecomer disadvantage, the rise of China, rely heavily on foreign trade. China’s rise, from the beginning to the present, that is, export-oriented economy. China’s economic center, has been in the east coast.
The same time, dependence of the fixed asset investment, China also reached the point of deformity. Since 2002, China’s investment in fixed assets, from 4.3202 trillion yuan, an increase to 31.1022 trillion yuan in 2010. An increase of 7.2 times in eight years, an average annual growth of over 25%, reached a record 30 percent in 2009, GDP growth rate over the same period, well below the growth rate of investment in fixed assets.
Period of rapid development of sophisticated modern country, we can find, the economic take-off, you really want to experience the high-investment stage, However, the global mainstream country, did not reach a height of nearly a decade since the Chinese in 2002. The Japanese economy is the fastest growing period is about 60-80 years of the 20th century, fixed assets investment rate hovering around about 33%. 2010, China’s fixed asset investment up to 70%.
High investment at the cost of borrowing against future low-carbon era, China’s development will certainly subject to various constraints, drumming pass the fancy of local and central sector debt that could one day must be honored. Investment depleted soon emerge.
China needs to find a new impetus to the development, in this case, vigorously develop the mass consumption, will become the hope for the revitalization of China’s future.
The beginning of the founding of the United States, due to sparsely populated, mainly with the development of European trade, but since the mid-19th century, with the increase of immigration, consumption capacity, the U.S. economy’s rapid pace of foreign trade has been relegated to secondary status. After the Civil War, the U.S. domestic hurdles to be wiped away, the trade between the states, basically unimpeded, thus forming a huge domestic market. American countries, the transition from start of a “continental strategy, with the Chicago became a transportation center in the United States, the United States from the founding of the beginning of the emphasis on foreign trade for the endogenous world economic power, the proportion of domestic consumption, foreign trade is much larger than. A great tribute to the huge domestic market for the United States rise to world power.グッチ〔MARRAKECH〕メッセンジャーバッグ 257024AMN0G1000
At present, the developed coastal areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim growth rate slows, the central and western regions remained relatively high speed. China is about to enter the equilibrium times. Only the domestic demand has become a leading, many inland cities can be expected to rise in order to achieve common prosperity of China.
As a result, China’s future need to complete two major tasks, one is wiped away by domestic barriers, and the other is a domestic demand-led. Unified domestic market, a huge domestic demand, in order to achievements continental power, creating lasting prosperity of China’s future.
, Only 40 percent of China’s domestic economic contribution, worthy of attention is dependent on investment in transition in recent years, serious pressure on the domestic demand. Many endogenous development area in Zhejiang, Guangdong and other anti-crisis because of the economic prosperity of the industry. Regional development “reverse out” the strange Bureau.
At present, China’s internal market is not uniform, mainly because due to compartmentalization of the economy. The impulse of local development, both the various parts of the booming power also led to fragmentation. Late in the 19th century, the United States, is to break the domestic barriers to complete the unified national market, was able to achieve the overall rise. In this respect, there is a huge worry far as the barriers in terms of the toll highway more than 70 percent of the world, in China, for China to form a unified domestic market, forming a huge resistance. Princes in the industry planning economy, and will restrict the rise of domestic demand in China. Thus, Swinger national levels, to quell the princes economy, but inevitable.
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