Inflection point in the glass rise and fall of policy decision to seize the oppo
First, the whole industry is extremely pessimistic about the prospects for the future
1 nightmare start.
Glass industry in 2009 experienced a very high degree of pessimism to the development of the economy changes. 2009
The beginning of the end of 2008 glass prices continue to trend sharply diving, a record low. As of February 2009, to focus on tracking business example 5mm float glass prices fell 48.4 yuan / Weight box, before diving over the price drop to 30.40%. 1-2 months of flat glass in 2009, the overall industry-wide losses, losses amount to 520 million yuan.
2, its capacity to adjust and bring about gradual warming downstream demand.
Industry boom of the extreme decline in float glass production line led to about 40 more than the normal non-stop production, production capacity reached 130 million weight cases, accounting for 23% of total capacity in 2008 is about. In 2009, the national commercial real estate area of growth has remained above 20%, production overcapacity and pressure recovery, the glass prices start from February all the way and sing, have gone through the rising hot suppressed in 2009. Because production capacity during this period had left, the pressure is expected to make complex products market has been the industry's boom up and duration of caution, it is also expected to inhibit such a complex production rate of the glass industry, to extend the business cycle. Flat output growth volatility in short supply to keep up leading the industry trend, interpretation of float glass prices continued to rise for 10 months, the myth.
3, the photovoltaic industry support policies of the glass plate of listed companies rose trigger machine.
As listed in CSG A glass and gold crystal glass technology uses a solar-related businesses benefit from the PV policy. Upward trend in the industry fundamentals, new energy industry to identify and support policies, new energy expected to make a good glass of listed companies stock price index from February 12 after a period of less than two months rose to 62%. Especially in the March 27 start up sharply Gaps, this policy factor which discounted.
4, production control policy with the broader market indices trades simultaneously.
Countries from the end of August 2009 defined the flat glass industry, industry overcapacity, then the relevant departments issued a series of industry capacity for the glass industry control policy. Although the glass plate during this period the price index over the broader market failed, but has to keep pace with the broader market.
Second, high to low volatility of 2010 or the year of excess capacity inflection point
1, industry self-adjustment and control policy of the reins of production capacity expansion and to contain the strength and speed of complex products
The glass industry in 2009 include the national industries with excess capacity, while strengthening control of new capacity. This new product line not only play a role on the resumption of production control impact. It is also in 2009 that under the pressure of overcapacity, some companies have implemented technological transformation and other measures, the speed of inhibition of complex production. However, the level of profitability in the industry in a better situation level, complex impulse will also be re-produced in late 2009 and 2010 the gradual release of the industry as a whole in 2010 showed high to low situation. If the rapid resumption of production, production control policy for the policy will be fully reflected. A production control policy that the insurance rope, the industry will show a fluctuation.
Meanwhile, according to related statistics, glass production line can not repair capacity reached 72.79 million weight cases, which will directly affect the industry, the pressure of complex production. Capacity constraints in the above two conditions, the supply of glass industry in 2010 the pressure will be greatly weakened.
2,2010 in the industry point to see the policy changes
High boom industry in 2009 to form and maintain the situation is the driving force: demand-than-expected real estate market, industry overcapacity and production is expected to be able to control the psychological impact of policies on the industry.
First three quarters of 2009, excess industry capacity is expected to be completed and the area of real estate growth boom of up to promote the industry, the fourth quarter of 2009, production control policies in the industry boom of the high case, the expected impact on the industry. However, higher levels of profit-driven industry, the trend is inevitable resumption of production, excess capacity is expected to gradually fail. Therefore, the hope of the policy in 2010, including the impact on the real estate market related policies and capacity glass out and control policies. New capacity in 2010, affected by the case of upward demand or overcapacity 2010 turning point for years.
3, fluctuations in the harvest and planting time to grasp
Fluctuation in 2010 the industry is inevitable. Complex production capacity increasing, if the real estate market demand can not be improved accordingly, the formation of equilibrium between supply and demand will be destroyed in short supply will change. But the added inventory processes and policies for the escort industry, will allow the industry to form a new equilibrium. Industry volatility increase, the overall trend showed high to low. If the policy will allow the industry to strengthen efforts to start up again. As the glass industry in 2009 and 2010 hikes resulted from the case of the first half of unabated demand, high growth in the first half became a foregone conclusion. Fluctuations in revenue brought about broadcast opportunities, the 2010 harvest season is expected in the first half, planting season in the second half, or is more likely to end.
Some companies simply flat float glass operations of listed companies such as ST Luoyang Glass, Three new material will appear significantly improved performance and higher growth. YPG such as relocation of production line of business will also appear more flexibility to adjust to remind the investors concerned. CSG A glass of listed companies as a leading enterprise in production scale, while polysilicon operational, support policies to benefit photovoltaic industry, which will enhance the performance of CSG A rebound. Jin Jing technology trends in ultra-white glass up, the float is not a small business accounting, soda ash business performance of the company contribution for the elastic, the bottom has 2009 results now. CNAC Sanxin business performance because of its stability and curtain wall, glass business capacity to gradually release a clear growth, particularly in the third quarter of 2010, PPG 2011 glass production line technology will be gradually put into production. To remind investors to tap the good harvest and planting time.
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