This Year the Super Bowl Pick is the Falcons

The Saints over the Colts. That was the Super Bowl prediction in this space a year ago, brought up hardly for the sake of gloating but entirely for protection. Consider it a pre-emptive strike against anyone even thinking about stuffing this year’s playoff forecast in a drawer and checking its accuracy on Super Bowl Sunday. Good luck to anyone sitting on the couch at 1 p.m. today thinking he knows what will unfold in the ensuing three hours, let alone a dope like me trying to forecast the next two months in the Nutty Football League.

Let’s see if we have this straight: The Vikings send the Patriots a third-round draft pick for Randy Moss and a glass of whine to be named later, then toss Moss and coach Brad Childress in the dumpster? And over in the corner, Cardinals QB Derek Anderson is screaming that nothing is funny to him? What about the idea of the Chiefs having a better record than those Vikings, or the Rams being able to look down upon the Cowboys? At least, since this is December, the Bills and Lions as usual are winding up their draft clocks.

Other than that, not only is unpredictability at an all-time high in the NFL, so is parity. For the first time, all eight divisions have at least two teams within a game of first place through 12 weeks. So who knows? As philosopher Jim Mora once famously said, “You think you know, but you don’t know.” Of course, Mora also was the one who yelped, “Pla-a-a-a-y-offs? Don’t talk about pla-a-a-a-y- offs!”

Sorry, but I must, and in an authoritative tone giving the impression that, yes, I think I know. Might as well start with the Dolphins, who should not be talking about playoffs because their chances are only slightly better than the odds that Pat White would complete a pass.

Yes, the Fish can be spunky on defense. But what are we to make of a running game that has slipped from fourth in the NFL to 19th? And what about Brandon Marshall having as many touchdown catches as rookie Marlon Moore (one) and half as many as running back Patrick Cobbs? Miami not making the playoffs is relatively easy. As for the rest of the league, I’ll lean on these principles to sort out the mess.

Would love — love! — to say the Kansas City Chiefs are going to the dance. Todd Haley might be coach of the year. Matt Cassel has 22 TD passes against four interceptions, so go figure why it’s suddenly fashionable to knock him. Jamaal Charles, 1,021 yards rushing! And Dwayne Bowe has more touchdown receptions (14) than all Dolphins combined (12). But they won’t be able to hold off San Diego in the AFC West.

San Diego is 25-5 under Norv Turner after October and is playing its usual game of catch-up, which is bad news for K.C. Come January, the Bolts will run out of gas. Again. Jets’ Mark Sanchez can’t lose. In New England, there’s no more delicious sight than Tom Brady pacing the sideline before running a two-minute drill. As enticing as their clash will be this week on Monday Night Football, it’s just a table-setter for the rematch in the AFC Championship Game.

The glaring omission in this year’s AFC bracket is Indy, which last missed the playoffs in 2000. The Colts have all sorts of shortcomings, as usual, but with Peyton Manning throwing pick- sixes, those shortcomings now matter. Let’s hope Philadelphia’s Michael Vick has changed as much off the field as he has on it, where he finally has earned the right to be called a quarterback. If he can maintain his standard of excellence, on a team that leads the league at plus-15 in turnovers, a great storyline could be brewing.

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan not only has a great nickname, Matty Ice, but a 19-1 record at home as a starting quarterback. Home is exactly where the NFC Championship Game will be. The Falcons’ offense features its own version of the Triplets with Ryan, RB Michael Turner (974 yards) and WR Roddy White (1,066 yards). Defense? How about No. 7 in points allowed? All that’s missing is a circus atmosphere, which will arrive when Vick returns to town for an Eagles-Falcons NFC title game. Teams most likely to crash the Super Bowl party are the Ravens and Saints. But we’ll go with Atlanta over the Jets in Feb. 6.

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