China manufacturing sector close to the resumption of growth

China’s manufacturing industry in July, difficult to return to growth path. The survey seems to indicate that government policies aimed at supporting the economy is beginning to work.

HSBC (HSBC) said that its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected in July from 48.2 to 49.5, which would mark a five-month high. However, the value of the Purchasing Managers’ Index Preview (the flash of the PMI, released the first monthly economic data) is still below the 50 mark, indicating that factory activity is still mild contraction.

Earlier easing measures are beginning to work, “said Qu Hongbin, HSBC head of Asia research. “But having said that, the July data is still less than 50 employment facing increasing pressure means that the demand is still weak, which called for the official introduction of more easing to support growth and employment.”

China’s economic growth of 7.6 percent in the first half of this year, which is the slowest since early 2009 during the worst of the global financial crisis. In this regard, the Chinese government has stepped up the intensity of expenditure and to ease monetary policy in order to curb the deceleration momentum. Many analysts believe that these measures will promote China’s economy is recovering in the second half of the year.

However, investors remain skeptical about the strength of the recovery. China’s benchmark stock index Shanghai Composite Index (Shanghai Composite Index) three-month downward trend, the current level of close to three years to the lowest point.

In the past month, the yuan is also under selling pressure. On Tuesday, the yuan against the dollar fell to its lowest level this year, down nearly 1 percent on the day, to Sunday trading range bottom. The yuan’s recent weakness reflects the existence of some capital outflows, but also seems to indicate that China’s central bank may be willing to accept a moderate depreciation of the yuan to support export enterprises.

Although the policy stance of Chinese government has turned to promoting growth attitude, but the government no longer willing to like the end of 2008, as the introduction of large-scale stimulus package. So far, bind the Government to respond to the strength of the key factors in the labor market is relatively stable.

However, in most show signs of improvement, but the HSBC PMI preview value deterioration of the display job market, their employment sub-index falling instead of rising. The increase in unemployment, the Chinese government will be under immense pressure to take more action to promote economic growth.

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