Gradually steadied the international fertilizer market
By the end of 2009 to mid-March 2010, the international fertilizer market has experienced a surge of China’s fertilizer market is also affected to some extent, the domestic fertilizer prices have pulled up. But the good thing is most of Asia experiencing bad weather hit, the Chinese fertilizer market has just started to fight back by. The international fertilizer market, the good times are far in 2008 that long. Since mid-March, the international fertilizer prices steadily downward. Some fertilizer trading countries for the current market conditions and trade, the reporter has done a survey and related interviews with foreign industry.
Investigation on the international market in the process of feeling, and unlike the situation last year and the year before, and now the face of the international fertilizer business ups and downs of the market when the fertilizer is more calm, on the one hand the weather unpredictable, unavoidable, and the other aspects of the battlefield in the fertilizer trade gradually shifted. Long time no major market situation, fertilizer business is only to maintain clear thinking, and dignity that the strategy to address the obvious chaos and potential changes in the market.
Recently, Vietnam’s fertilizer producers claim that the Vietnamese fertilizer in short supply, prices will be up late. But the Vietnamese Trade and Industry to respond to such rumors, saying the coming of summer and autumn crops, fertilizer, fertilizer imports and domestic fertilizer stocks are abundant, and not because of speculation in short supply and prices.
Some fertilizer business analysis that due to inclement weather, the Vietnamese farmers are not enthusiastic purchase fertilizer, the same time, the international fertilizer prices are rising, so fertilization season, the fertilizer prices may be higher. Through analysis, we believe that the Vietnamese fertilizer prices due to raw material shortage, many foreign chemical fertilizer plant has been discontinued, but around the world fertilizer consumption is rising. India’s fertilizer consumption grew by 30% -35%, the United States increased by 20% -25%, Pakistan 12% -15% growth, the global fertilizer prices rose sharply early in 2010.
However, prices of Vietnam’s Trade and Industry does not support the view. They believe that the international urea prices in March 2010 began to decline in mid, now 269-300 U.S. dollars / ton, down 18%; international diammonium price of about 420 U.S. dollars / ton, down 10%. In addition, the import volume of chemical fertilizers in Vietnam recently, now an adequate supply of domestic fertilizer prices will not because the source of supply and price increases.
Government of India, phosphorus and potassium for the implementation of the recent “nutrient based subsidy policy,” while the Government to importers and producers of fertilizer subsidy is fixed, sold to farmers in the retail price is flexible. However, the government restricted importers and manufacturers in six months to maintain current price levels. In this case, the fertilizer demand will continue to grow 3% -4%. India expected urea, diammonium, and potassium chloride demand is 27 million tons, respectively, 9.5 million tons and 4 million tons. Government of India has allowed the company also imports fertilizer, because fertilizer in some parts of India, more popular than diammonium, so this will directly affect the consumption of diammonium India.
According to the demand for NPK, fertilizer situation in India is expected to be similar to last year. Since the Government to allow Indian companies import fertilizer, so the demand for diammonium will be affected, 10:26:26 and 14:38:14 of the fertilizer diammonium sales will bring a lot of pressure. Prices, I think that the price of raw materials and fertilizers will not bring much change.
Imports and import prices are mainly determined by the Government, directly or indirectly under the control of the domestic price level, due to the limited production of the Indian urea and diammonium, potassium entirely on imports, therefore, India will play a decisive role in the international fertilizer prices. India signed the current contract, urea, diammonium, and potassium chloride were 260-280 FOB U.S. dollars / ton ,440-460 U.S. dollars / ton, and 325-375 U.S. dollars / ton.
Singapore’s trade partners of fertilizer is usually Bangladesh, Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka, and the implementation of high tariffs when China and Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries to reduce export tariffs in China with the China trade. Currently Wilson Company from Russia, Poland and Ukraine imported fertilizer and diammonium, imports from the United States diammonium next step. The main export partner is India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. According to the survey, India imports 1800-2000 tons of fertilizer every year, Bangladesh imported 1 million tons per year of urea by the Government of Sri Lanka urea import demand has reached 20-30 million tons, a large export market in Singapore.
Wilson company with Chinese enterprises have frequent business dealings, is working with middle peasants, and the Hubei Yihua, the sky and so the company to discuss cooperation agreements with both fertilizer companies in India trade talks, this year’s goal is to export to India 25-30 tons of compound fertilizer.
We strongly feel that the Indian fertilizer market in the global market will gradually play a stabilizing role. India is now the world’s largest fertilizer importer of fertilizer prices in India are fixed, and the number of loans granted by the Government to decide, therefore relatively stable, to avoid unnecessary speculation. The Chinese yuan appreciation will have some influence international fertilizer trade, but China’s stage of open markets, the international fertilizer market is not entirely dependent on the export of chemical fertilizers in China, so little impact on the international market.
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